Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Buy Low on Millwood

Theirs been plenty of rumors going around about Rangers starters Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla. Both have posted high ERA's the past two years though and have drawn little interest. Padilla just isn't very good but I think Millwood might be a good opportunity for the Yankees to buy low on a solid, back of the rotation innings eater rather than hand out a huge deal to Burnett, or even Lowe if his price gets to high.

At first glance, Millwood looks like a guy who hit an early and steep decline. It looks worse when you realize that the Rangers owe him 11 million for 2009 and if he hits 180 innings then his 12 million dollar option for 2010 would become guarenteed. In a trade the Rangers would probably pick up a portion of this.

However, a closer look at his periphereals reveals a pretty solid pitcher. Over the past three years his BABIP has increased every year. In 2006 it was a slightly unlucky .313. After that it got much more extreme. In 2007 it was .348 and, finally, last year it become incredible .366. His FIP's over this time were 3.87, 4.55, and 4.02. His IP totals were 215, 172.2, and 168.2 which isn't fantastic but certainly better than Burnett, Penny, or Sheets who may be the backup plans for free agency if they fail to sign Lowe or Sabathia. If the Yankees are looking for an innings eater at the back of the rotation by the end of the offseason, they should definitely take a look at Kevin Millwood for 2 years.

6 comments:

Mike said...

No.

John Olsen said...

this is by far the stupidest fucken post i have ever read if u wanna sign millwood u might as well just cash in the season rotation wise the guys taht run this blog are a bunch of fucken morons

Mike NYY said...

Look, i`m not saying he`s a replacement for Sabathia or Lowe but if the Angels offer a Santana type deal then how much higher can the Yankees go?

Lowe I also like much better than Millwood. However, he`s getting older and if some idiot GM gives him a 5 year deal can you really top that?

Millwood would be the 5th starter. I`d trade for him if it was a salary dump, the Yankees had gotten a true ace by signing Sabathia or trading for Peavy and needed a solid innings eater to shore up the back-end of the rotation. He has an excellent chance of rebounding and could be one of the biggest bargains out there.

Mike NYY said...

Look at it like the Swisher trade maybe only they`d have to give up even less for Millwood and might fill and even bigger need.

Mike said...

Millwood is always hurt and has only had 3 good seasons. His best day is long over.

Mike NYY said...

He still managed to get through about 170 innings the past two years. More than Burnett, Sheets, or penny, who are probably the current Plan C's.