Sunday, December 14, 2008

How much is Andy Pettitte worth?

Before I write anything else, I want to make it clear that nothing in this post has anything to do with the fact that Pettitte was a member of the dynasty teams. This is totally based on how Pettitte will do in 2009.

The Yanks have one more spot in their rotation to fill. However, after acquiring Sabathia and Burnett they don't have enough money to splurge on Lowe or Sheets. Cashman has offered Pettitte a one year, 10 million dollar deal. If Pettitte accepts this offer then he may prove to be the biggest bargain on the free agent market.


First off, here`s Pettitte's RCA numbers:


2006- 4.11 (93 runs in 203 innings)

2007- 4.44 (103 runs in 209 innings)

2008- 4.05 (90 runs in 200 innings)

This in comparison to the replacement level pitcher.....

2006-5.50 (124 runs in 2o3 innings)

2007- 5.50 (127 runs in 209 innings)

2008- 5.50 (122 runs in 200 innings)


All of this adds up to these values:

2006- 31 runs, 3.1 wins, 17.05 million dollars

2007- 24 runs, 2.4 wins, 13.2 million dollars

2008- 32 runs, 3.2 wins, 17.6 million dollars

First of all we can see that Pettitte's 2008 was hardly the worst year of his career, as some think it is. He has not once over the past 3 years failed to earn the 10 million dollars/year he would be getting for 2009. He eats up innings and their is a lot of value in that.


For one year he`s a safe bet (at least as safe as any pitcher over 30 can be) to deliver 200 average to above average innings. You don't want him as a front of the rotation guy but for one year and 10 million dollars, it would be a big mistake to let him get away.

2 comments:

Jack NYY said...

Sabathia-Burnett-Wang-Chamberlain-Pettitte?

Hopefully Hughes/Aceves/Kennedy can cover for Burnett and Joba.

Anonymous said...

Love that projection by Bill James for Hughes. This could be an awesome rotation. They need some creativity to bolster this offense though.