Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Another Trade Idea

Another team who'd love to get one of the Yankees outfielders, particularly Xavier Nady, is the Braves. Talking to a few Braves fans I know last night (yes, their are Braves fans in New York) we managed to put together what they thought was a fair package.



First of all, the Yanks would get Martin Prado. Prado is a 25 year old super utility man. He hit .320/.377/.461 last year in his first full year in the majors. He probably won't repeat that but he`s a solid player and as a backup he is very good. Think of a Chone Figgins type, except he`s 25 with the potential to improve. You don't want him playing SS but in a pinch, he can handle it. Prado would strengthen the Yanks bench a ton and give them good insurance if Cano fails to bounce back.



Next, they`d get Brandon Jones. Jones was considered one of the Braves' best prospects a year ago and has the potential to be a very good corner outfielder one day. However, he was rushed and had an awful year last year. A change of scenery could help him recover next year, look at what it did for Jose Tabata. Their's a good buy low scenario here.



James Parr is another solid pitching prospect. He`s 22 and hit the major leagues just last year at the ago of 22. You can never have to many pitching prospects, even with Burnett and Sabathia locked up for the next few years. Most prospects, even at the AAA level never pan out and the best way to ensure success is to have a ton of them.



The Braves would be getting Xavier Nady of course. Currently in LF they have Matt Diaz coming off a bad injury riddled year. In RF they have Jeff Franceour who never saw a pitch he didn't like. Even if Nady reverts then he`d be an upgrade and their is always the chance he repeats 2008, 2009 is a contract year after all.



The Yankees get a young, cheap super-utility man in Prado, potentially a corner outfielder of the future in Jones, and yet more pitching depth in Parr. The Braves get a chance to compete in 2009 with a solid to good hitter. Nobody really stands out in this package but theirs a bunch of solid guys in here. Thoughts?

Bad Contracts

Generally, a win is worth somewhere between 5 and 6 million dollars to the average team. The Yankees had 89 wins last year with a payroll of about 220 million dollars. That's pretty inefficient and a lot that is due to bad contracts they gave out to players who are no getting old and still earning a ton of money.

Thanks to the brilliance that is fangraphs.com we can compare these player's worths to their actual contracts. They only have it up for hitters but that's better than anyone else has anyway. Its pretty pathetic to look at how few players aren't overpaid on the Yankees. Especially when compared to the Rays or Red Sox.

Here`s the projected Yankees starting lineup for next year (I`m sticking Damon in centerfield) with what they`re getting paid first and what they were worth last year second. Players that are overpaid are bolded. If the difference is insignificant then I didn't bold it:

C- Jorge Posada- 13.1/3.4

1B- Mark Teixeira- 22/30

2B- Robinson Cano- 1.8/3

SS- Derek Jeter- 15.9/21.6

3B- Alex Rodriguez- 27.6/28

RF- Nick Swisher- 3.9/3.6

CF- Johnny Damon- 17.4/13

LF- Xavier Nady- 16.3/3.4

DH- Hideki Matsui- 3.6/13.0

Its interesting that not many of these players are overpaid. However, in 2008 the Yanks were one of the least efficient teams in baseball. Many of their bad contracts that have been weighing them down for years left for free agency this year and were replaced with expensive but good players. I think in 2008 we will see a lot of this inefficiency erased.

Its also interesting to look at who is overpaid and the fact that Matsui and Jeter got their big contracts before Cashman got full control. Cano was only overpaid by a couple million and can be counted on for a bounceback year. The Posada signing was born of desperation and he should also bounceback and be much closer to his contract next year.

Happy New Year Everyone!

Monday, December 29, 2008

Yanks Shopping Nady

We missed this yesterday but Mike Silva reported that the Yanks are shopping Xavier Nady. They asked the Reds about Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang. Arroyo has been the definition of average for the past few years. He eats a ton of innings but I don't see how he`s any better than Pettitte. Especially in the AL East. On the other hand, we have Harang who is coming off a bad year but has been an underrated pitcher on the same level as Wang. Harang is under contract for another few years and would really give the Yanks an incredible rotation. For Nady I`d have to make that trade. The Reds are reluctant to give up either for a player with only one year left on his contract. This seems to be the problem with trading Nady. Nobody wants to give up pitching for a one year rental.

He puts the chances of Pettitte returning at only 30 percent which may be motivating their interest in trading Nady.

Saturday, December 27, 2008

Nady for Sanchez?

Theirs a few effects of this trade that would go beyond the direct exchange of the players. First of all, it frees up 6 million dollars for another free agent. It won't buy you Manny Ramirez but it gives you enough for Rocco Baldelli.



Baldelli is a big risk and probably won't be as good as Nady. However, dealing Nady allows you to move Damon out of center, to left where he is actually pretty good. Any combination of Baldelli/Gardner/Melky also promises to be well above average in center. This is a big difference in the field from Damon/Swisher in center and Nady in left. Enough to overcome the loss of hitting? Probably not but its fairly close and if the Baldelli gamble pays off then its almost definitely an upgrade. The loss in the outfield is real but not truly significant.

They`d also be getting Jonathan Sanchez. He`s a 26 year old lefty with great stuff. His numbers look bad on the surface but when you look closer they`re actually pretty good. In his first full year in the major leagues last year he had an RCA of 4.40. His biggest problem is that he walks a lot of guys but he gets enough strikeouts to compensate. He will learn the control as he gets older and has the potential to breakout next year and be a top-line player for years to come.

All in all, if the Yanks are looking to trade an extra outfielder then this trade might make a lot of sense for both sides.

Trade Idea

We`re heading into January and most of the big free agents are already off the table. The Yankees have accomplished most of thier goals already. Now they may be looking to shed some payroll by trading one or two of Swisher/Nady/Damon/Matsui. Yesterday I outlined why Nady would make the most sense to be traded. Now, here`s my ideal trade scenario.

The Giants yesterday signed Randy Johnson to a one year deal. This adds to what was already a surplus of pitching. Their biggest problem is a lack of offense. They had one of the worst lineups in the league last year and, truthfully, are really missing Barry Bonds. They pretty much sucked last year but the Randy Johnson signing indicates they may be looking to compete in 2009 and in the NL West, anything can happen.

Jonathan Sanchez is a lefty with great stuff for the Giants. He`s coming off two bad years and the Giants may be willing to trade him. Hidden behind his high ERA's are some pretty nice periphereals. He's 25 years old and now would be a great time to buy low on him.

On the other hand, we have the Yankees. They`ve got a glut of corner outfielders and trading Nady makes a ton of sense for various reasons. Nady is coming off a career year and some are calling it his breakout year. Brian Sabean and the Giants could take a gamble on Nady hoping to get a star and compete in 2009. The Yanks could also throw in Phil Coke as a solid B level prospect.

So we have this:

Yankees Receive: Jonathan Sanchez

Giants Receive: Xavier Nady + Phil Coke

I`ll elaborate on the full impact of this trade later, I`m kind of tired right now. Think this is a fair trade guys?

Offer Still On Table

Andy Pettitte's offer is still out there for now. if he wants to come back, he`d better hurry up and accept it before that offer disapears.

Friday, December 26, 2008

Who to Trade?

With the recent signing of Teixeira their's been talk of trading one or two of the Yanks corner outfielders. If they traded one it would make room for Pettitte (which may or may not already exist) and if they traded two they could conceivably be able to afford Manny Ramirez (don't see that happening though). I only see them trading one, if that. Here`s a look at the 3 guys they`re considering trading.

Damon had a great year last year offensively. In fact, believe it or not it was one of the best years of his career with the bat. However, he`s getting older, is an injury risk, and can't play a good centerfield anymore. I`d be shocked if even came close to replicating 2008. Normally, it would be a good time to sell high on him going into a contract year. Unfortunately, though, they can't. His perceived value is a lot lower than his actual value and they wouldn't get enough back to make it worth it. Damon also has a partial NTC and likes New York. He would require some sort of compensation if he were traded making him less attractive to any suitor as well.

Swisher was basically just robbed from the White Sox. They gave up very little to get him and he`s poised to have a huge bounce-back year. What they would get for Swisher is almost definitely going to be less than what they gave up for him as well. He`s under team control for the next few years at a fairly low price as well. Swisher also is going to be one of the only players under 30 in the opening day starting lineup. Trading Swisher makes zero sense.

Matsui can still hit fairly well but that's about it. He`s never been a very good left-fielder and now he`s a huge problem out there so that probably takes out the entire NL as potential trade partners. He`s also the biggest injury risk on this list. It seems like all those years of playing all out every day have taken a toll on him. The odds are probably against him being worth the 13 million dollars left on his contract. They`d have to pick up a big chunk of that and accept almost nothing in return if they were to trade. He brings in a lot of money from Japan as well which might make them reluctant to trade him. Further adding to this mess is that he has a full NTC.

Nady has always been a solid player until 2008. It wasn't until then that he became a genuine star player. The question is whether he`s a late bloomer having a breakout year or just a fluke. I really have no idea how to tell which it is but past history tells us that a fluke is more likely. It might be a good idea to sell high on him here. He`s the only one who would actually bring back anything of value and only has one year left anyway. Moving him would put Gardner or Melky into the lineup but it also lets Damon move to a corner spot. If Nady reverts to his previous offensive levels then the upgrade on defense over a bad Damon and a mediocore Nady largely cancels out the difference between hitters.

Many teams would have interest in Nady and I`ll get into that later on but any trade that could possibly happen probably wouldn't happen for a while. Later on when most of the top free agent hitters are off the board some of the losers may come calling Cashman. Then we might start hearing some rumors. I still don't think the Yanks are done yet though.

Yankees the Early Favorite in the AL East

According to SG at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog (and Sean Smith's CHONE projections), the Yankees are projected to win 96 games, and the AL East. However, it will not be easy, as the Red Sox and Rays both project to do very well. Click the link to see the projections, they're really great if you like the kind of thing.

Thursday, December 25, 2008

Merry Christmas From TCK

Send your own ElfYourself eCards

Cashman with all of his homies

Merry Christmas Everyone

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Wednesday, December 24, 2008

The Problem With Teixeria

As Pete Abe states in this post their is going to be a problem with the Mark Teixiera signing. It probably means they don't have room for Andy Pettitte. This was the very reason why I preferred Adam Dunn. On the other hand, they could just forget about the budget and blow it up for one year and worry about payroll next year when they have even more contracts comign off with a weaker free agent class.

Their may be another option though. They could trade either Damon or Nady. Nady probably makes the most sense and might be able to bring back some value to replenish the diminished farm. Its jsut speculation but the Yankees ARE a business and DO have a budget.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

The Teixeira Deal

The Yankees third huge signing of the off-season got done today with their signing of Mark Teixeira. While most Yankees fans are excited about this for at least 2008, does it actually make sense long-term?

Personally, I think so. We all know this offense is getting older with them only going to have a few players under 30 in the starting lineup next year. Teixiera has the rare combination of both great hitting and fielding. He`s an athlete and is unlikely to have a fast Giambi-like decline which makes his contract an albatross. Most projections have him being worth about what his average anual salary is. He`s a long-term answer to the offense, not just a one or two year patch like Manny or Dunn.

Theirs a few other reasons they did this, as well. First of all, keeping him out of Boston definitely is a plus. The Yankees also see no other long-term options available. They have no real first base propsects in the minors and next year is a weak free agent class. The signings of Burnett and Sabathia also have an impact on this move. To sign Teixeira they essentially only have to give up a third round draft pick because they already signed two type A free agents. In other years they would have to give up a first round pick for a comparable player.

I`m a little embarrassed about this and their were better options. However, in a vaccum its a good move.

Teixeira Notes

Here`s a few notes on the Mark Teixeira signing:
  • The deal is basically 8 years for 180 million dollars. This keeps him up until his mid 30's.
  • Their is no opt-out as was previously reported.
  • He has a full no trade clause.
  • The average annual salary will be about 22-23 million dollars a year.
  • They`re planning on trading either Damon, Matsui, Nady, or Swisher to make room on the payroll.
  • Their bid was about 5-10 million dollars more than the Red Sox depending on who you`re asking.
  • I preferred Adam Dunn but I can't really complain about this signing.
  • The Yankees spending IS ridiculous and something really has to be done about it.

Yanks Still Not Done

The Yankees still plan to make at least one more major move this off-season according to Joel Sherman. In order to afford both Teixeira and Andy Pettitte, they`re going to try and trade one of Swisher, Nady, Damon, or Matsui. This obviously takes away some of the upside from the Teixeira signing but he`ll still help the team a ton.

Teixeria Signs With Yankees!

According to a few different reports, the Yankees have signed Mark Teixeria to an eight year deal worth about 180 million dollars. I`m slightly dissapointed but at least it wasn't Manny and my preference of Dunn over Teixeria was small. More on this later.

Monday, December 22, 2008

Yankees Sign CMW to 1 Year Deal

Here is the word off the press release:
The New York Yankees announced today that they have signed right-handed pitcher Chien-Ming Wang to a one-year contract for $5 million, avoiding arbitration.
Wang, 28, was 8-2 with a 4.07 ERA in 15 starts for the Yankees in 2008 before being placed on the disabled list on June 17 for the remainder of the season with a mid-foot sprain of the Lisfranc ligament and a partial tear of the peroneal longus tendon in his right foot. He began the season 6-0, including a 5-0 mark in April, and was the Yankees' Opening Day starter in the final season opener at Yankee Stadium on April 1, defeating Toronto, 3-2.
Despite missing most of the 2008 season, Wang's 46 wins since 2006 are tied for the third-most in the American League and eighth-most in the Majors. His .754 combined winning percentage over the last three seasons (2006-08) is the second-highest in the Majors behind Boston's Jon Lester (.771, 27-8). He recorded back-to-back seasons with 19 wins in 2006 and 2007, becoming the first Yankee to win as many games in each of two consecutive seasons since Tommy John in 1979-80.
On April 22, 2008, in his 85th career start, Wang became the third-fastest Major League pitcher in the last 50 years to reach 50 career wins behind Dwight Gooden (82nd start) and the Yankees' Ron Guidry (82nd start), according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
Signed by the Yankees as a non-drafted free agent on May 5, 2000, Wang has won more games than any Taiwanese-born pitcher and ranks third all-time in wins by Asian-born pitchers behind Japan's Hideo Nomo (123) and South Korea's Chan Ho Park (117).
Now we can rock out with out Wang out through the 2011 season.

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Nats/Texiera

According to Buster Olney, the word is that the Nationals do not expect to win the bidding for Mark Texiera. This seems to suggest that they did not make a sudden ridiculous offer, topping the Red Sox. This makes me think he`ll end up in Boston unless the Yankees can shed some payroll in the form of Matsui or Igawa.

Britton to San Diego

The Padres signed former Yankees reliever, Chris Britton. He never really got a chance in New York unfortunately. Good luck to him in PETCO.

Yanks Lurking On Texiera

Today we had two reports essentially saying that the Yanks are interested in Texiera but are reluctant to go past 8 years, 160 million. Boras has told them that they need 8 years 180 million dollars to entice Texiera. As Mike Schmidt notes, they`re going to have to get creative with the payroll if they`re going to sign Texiera. However, next year they, again, have a lot of payroll coming off so they might be able to pull it off.

Saturday, December 20, 2008

Pettitte to Yanks Inevitable?

Ken Rosenthal thinks that a Pettitte/Yanks deal is inevitable. Hopefully, they can get this done soon.

Friday, December 19, 2008

Has Burnett Really Changed?

One thing we heard A.J. Burnett say over and over again in his press conference yesterday was how he had become a pitcher last year and not a thrower. He explained his sudden ability to stay healthy with not relying on trying to throw a 100 mph fastball every pitch, trusting his curve more, and focusing more on control.

A lot of times when players have career years like this they try and explain their performance with nonsensical statements that end up not being true. This caught my attention though, partially because I`m still trying to rationalize this signing. Unfortunately, this seems to be more of a myth than fact.

He did throw his curve more than usual and his fastball less than usual in 2008 but its not a big enough difference to really matter. His FB velocity did decrease but by more than you would expect from a player entering his 30's. His BB/9 rate wasn't that different from the previous year and was actually higher than some other years as well. I don't see much evidence of this sudden change Burnett claims to have made last year. Maybe I`m missing something but I don't really think Burnett is over the injury hump at all.

The Mark Texiera Dance

Last night the Red Sox met with Mark Texiera, their was a lot of bridge-jumping going on with Yankees fans. However, then hours later we heard this from John Henry:

"We met with Mr. Teixeira and were very much impressed with him. After hearing about his other offers, however, it seems clear that we are not going to be a factor."

After that we got a response from Scott Boras who probably does not like this.

"The Boston ownership was kind enough to request and travel to meet with Mark Teixeira. While it was a very positive meeting Mark was candid and advised he is in the process of making a decision and is now attempting to eliminate teams."

First of all, this does not mean Boston is out of the bidding. It just means that they are holding with their offer of 175-180 million dollars over 8 years (about 23 million a year). It just means that Boras told them that another team had made a bigger offer and they`re refusing to go any higher.

The Orioles have seemingly faded from the chase and now we know that the Yanks were not the ones to sweep in with a huge offer. This leaves the Angels and Nationals. It doesn't seem like the Angels would do something rash like that and give him a ridiculous contract, no matter how good of a fit he is for them.

On the other hand Jim Bowden, the Nationals GM, is definitely capable of something like this. It makes no sense but if somebody did in fact outbid Boston and it wasn't the Yankees, then the Nationals are the most likley destination for him. I would love to see him head to the NL East where he can't hurt the Yanks and take away a competitor for Adam Dunn.

What's more likely though, is that Henry and Boras are both bluffing. In truth, nobody has probably topped Boston's offer and he will end up in Boston in the end.

Andy Pettitte

Things have been mostly quiet with Andy Pettitte. According to this report, he still wants to be a Yankee and things are going well with the negotiations. Things sound like Pettitte's just letting his agents try to squeeze every penny he can out of the Yanks but will eventually return.

I wish they would get a deal done though, Pettitte's non-decision is preventing the Yanks from going all in for Mark Texiera (more on that later). Maybe they already know he`s coming back but selfishly, I`d like to know.

In other news, the Yanks are backing away from Ben Sheets due to injury concerns. So, they may have a decision from Pettitte already.

Thursday, December 18, 2008

Nick Johnson?

With the Yankees looking to add another bat to their lineup, some fans have speculated about trading for Nick Johnson. It seems like the Nationals really are going hard after Mark Texiera and if that fails they may look to sign Adam Dunn. If either of those guys are signed, then Nick Johnson would become very expendable to them with one year left on his contract worth about 6 million dollars

Johnson has displayed a tremendous amount of talent. When he`s healthy he's a lot like Mark Texiera with both a good glove and a middle of the order bat. For the money he`s getting paid in 2009 he`d be a great bargain and would easily help the offense recover to previous levels. His good defense also compensates for the move of Damon to center. If he`s healthy.

That's the biggest problem with Johnson and probably the reason why he`s so attractive in the first place. Every single year career, he has missed significant time due to injury. Its really insane. However, their's a question of how much time he will actually miss. If he has a year like 2008 then he can't really help much. However, their's a good chance he`ll have a year like 2007 or 2006 where he "only" misses 20-30 games. While its dissapointing, he can still help the team a ton, especially with a good backup first baseman.

It just so happens that a good backup first baseman is readily available in Ty Wigginton. So, would it be a terrible thing if Cashman took advantage of Jim Bowden's stupidity and sold him Kei Igawa and Phil Coke for Nick Johnson? Because Johnson's contract is so low, they could then afford an uber bench and sign both Ty Wigginton and Rocco Baldelli to cover for an injury prone team. It probably makes more sense to take the safe bet and just sign Adam Dunn, however, its a fun idea to toy around with.

20 Million Dollars to Spend...

Even after doling out huge contracts to Burnett and Sabathia, Cashman still has about 20 million dollars to spend. Their only real hole is in centerfield. However, both Damon and Swisher can handle centerfield, albeit poorly. Lets assume they`re not going to trade for a centerfielder like DeJesus which may ultimately be the best course of action.

We`ve already established Manny just doesn't fit on this team. He`d have a hard time squeezing onto the payroll and probably isn't worth the contract he`ll get anyway. That leaves two big hitters left on the market. Adam Dunn and Mark Texiera.

Mark Texiera is a fantastic hitter and a gold glove level fielder at first base. That combinations is pretty rare. He`s not quite on the level of the Albert Pujols and A-Rods of the world but he`s definitely on that next tier of players. He`s only 29 and has gotten big offers from the Angels, Orioles, Nationals, and Red Sox with the Yankees showing interest.

On the other hand, we have Adam Dunn. All three of us have been in favor of signing this guy for a long time. It still makes a ton of sense. This guy is also a great hitter, not on the same level as Texiera but he`s still a great hitter. The biggest problem with him is his glove. At first base he is on the same level as Giambi. That would allow Swisher to move into left-field though where he is very good. That makes them a wash but Damon in centerfield is a problem and will cost them a couple wins.

Texiera is pretty obviously the better player at face value. However, Texiera is rumored to already have an offer of 160 million dollars over 8 years (20 million per year) from the Nationals with the Red Sox, Angels, and Orioles not far behind. Normally, he`d be worth that type of contract, especially to the Yankees who are going to be on the brink of the playoffs next year. Their's also the added benefit of keeping him away from AL East teams (Boston and Baltimore) and rivals (The Angels and Boston). However, that keeps them from pursuing help in any other area. It means they will go into the year with a bench of Ransom-Gardner-Molina-Cabrera and they will be forced to again put Hughes in the Opening Day rotation.

Dunn makes much more sense to me. The only team that has really expressed interest in him are the Nationals, who are currently the highest bidders for Texiera and have Nick Johnson already at first. He's the backup plan of a few teams but not many. Dunn may have to settle for 3 years at 36 million dollars or maybe even less. He`s only 29 (same age as Texiera) and a 3 year deal would probably get him in the best years of his career at about 12 million dollars a year. For a guy with Dunn's bat, that's a bargain. It also lets them make a few other moves. First of all, they can hold their offer to Andy Pettitte. They also have enough cash to pursue some other interesting names like Rocco Baldelli, Ty Wigginton, Juan Rivera, and Joe Nelson for the bench/bullpen. Rocco Baldelli in particular interests me now that we know more about his condition.

Its a choice between Texiera as the first baseman, Hughes as the 5th starter, Kennedy/Aceves as injury fill-ins, and Brett Gardner/Melky Cabrera as your backup outfielders or Dunn as the first baseman, Pettitte as the 5th starter, Hughes as injury fill-ins and Rocco Baldelli/Brett Gardner as your backup outfielders. Signing Dunn allows them to make a deeper and better team.

Cameron Trade Dead

The Mike Cameron trade seems to be dead based on Doug Melvin's comments to Kat O`Brien. The biggest roadblock to this one was Cameron's contract which motivated the Brewers to shop him in the first place. I think this one fell through because they`re looking for a bigger bat than Mike Cameron. What that bat is, I`m not sure. A David DeJesus trade would look real nice right about now.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Why Manny Makes No Sense

I know I`ve said before that Manny Ramirez's antics never bothered me and had he not been on the Red Sox for much of his career he would probably be one of my favorite non-Yankees. He`s also one of the best right-handed hitters in the history of the game. However, now that he`s a free agent I don't want him. I`ve wavered back and forth on this and I love the idea of him hitting behind A-Rod as much as anybody but it just doesn't make sense.

First of all, his value is entirely in his bat. His arm isn't terrible but he has zero range. In Fenway that's not a huge deal since he can play the Green Monster well but in the New Yankee Stadium that'll be a problem. It also pushes Damon to centerfield where he`s a liability. That makes Manny a big negative in the field. I`m not going to bother trying to make a guesstimate on how much he`ll hurt the team with his glove but its a big factor and it greatly depreciates his value. If you`re going to give a guy as much money as Manny wants, he has to be the total package.

Secondly, he wants a 5 year deal and is 37. He won't get 5 years from anybody but 4 years is certainly possible and I`d be shocked if he didn't get at least 3. Regardless, he is old for baseball player. Not many guys can keep up the production Manny puts out from ages 37 to 40. Yes, he's a great player but if you look closely, he`s had a pretty normal aging pattern. He`s been declining steadily since his late 30's and its going to speed up as he gets older. By the end of his contract he`ll be entrenched in a DH hole that Jeter, Posada, A-Rod, or somebody else will desperately need to move into. I don't mind overpaying a little at the back-end of a deal to get a star player (Sabathia and A-Rod are perfect cases of this) but honestly, how many players are worth even 10 million dollars at 40? Let alone 25.

Thirdly, his contract totally prevents them from adressing other needs. They would have to withdraw their offer to Pettitte and go with Hughes starting 2009 in the rotation. This makes them lose a ton of rotation depth and Hughes could really use the time in AAA. Besides, even if Hughes is ready, then he`ll be on an innings limit with Joba and the bullpen will suffer. Also, forget about having a good bench. They can't add a Ty Wigginton type with Manny eating up 20-25 million every year. Manny's a ridiculous hitter but his glove takes away a lot of that value and he just wants to much money and to many years. Unless he settles for a much lower contract than he wanted, I have to say no thanks to Manny. Signing both A.J. Burnett and Manny Ramirez this offseason would really set this franchise back a few steps.

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Yanks to wait on Cameron?

Supposedly, the Yanks and Brewers have agreed on a deal based around Melky Cabrera and Kei Igawa with the Brewers willing to take on some of Cameron's salary. However, now they`re backing away. Mainly because they read RAB's post on the subject and think it makes more sense to wait on it. Or they want the Brewres to pay more of his contract. The Brewers haven't heard anything from New York over the weekend and are wondering if they still have any interest. Its up to the Yankees now.

I don't understand why they`re not jumping on this. Factoring in Igawa's contract they`re getting Cameron for 6 million dollars for one year. Then if they`re paying even one or two million dollars then they`re getting Cameron for 4-5 million dollars for one year for Igawa and Cabrera. It probably means they can't afford a big hitter like Ramiez or Texiera. Hoever, Cameron is a bigger upgrade over Gardner then Ramirez or Texiera would be over Matsui or Swisher.

Sunday, December 14, 2008

How much is Andy Pettitte worth?

Before I write anything else, I want to make it clear that nothing in this post has anything to do with the fact that Pettitte was a member of the dynasty teams. This is totally based on how Pettitte will do in 2009.

The Yanks have one more spot in their rotation to fill. However, after acquiring Sabathia and Burnett they don't have enough money to splurge on Lowe or Sheets. Cashman has offered Pettitte a one year, 10 million dollar deal. If Pettitte accepts this offer then he may prove to be the biggest bargain on the free agent market.


First off, here`s Pettitte's RCA numbers:


2006- 4.11 (93 runs in 203 innings)

2007- 4.44 (103 runs in 209 innings)

2008- 4.05 (90 runs in 200 innings)

This in comparison to the replacement level pitcher.....

2006-5.50 (124 runs in 2o3 innings)

2007- 5.50 (127 runs in 209 innings)

2008- 5.50 (122 runs in 200 innings)


All of this adds up to these values:

2006- 31 runs, 3.1 wins, 17.05 million dollars

2007- 24 runs, 2.4 wins, 13.2 million dollars

2008- 32 runs, 3.2 wins, 17.6 million dollars

First of all we can see that Pettitte's 2008 was hardly the worst year of his career, as some think it is. He has not once over the past 3 years failed to earn the 10 million dollars/year he would be getting for 2009. He eats up innings and their is a lot of value in that.


For one year he`s a safe bet (at least as safe as any pitcher over 30 can be) to deliver 200 average to above average innings. You don't want him as a front of the rotation guy but for one year and 10 million dollars, it would be a big mistake to let him get away.

The Results Are In

Our second poll is closed now and the results are in! I thought I will announce the results and start and new poll. The old question was:

DO YOU SUPPORT THE SIGNING OF NICK SWISHER?

The Results
Yes- 49 votes (79%)
No- 12 votes (19%)
Not Sure- 1 vote (1%) 
62 votes total 

Now to announce our new poll question:

WHO WILL BE THE YANKES 5th STARTER?

Pettitte 
Sheeets 
Hughes 
Aceves
IPK (Kennedy) 
Kim Jones

(the new poll is up and running) 
Remember to Vote! 

Saturday, December 13, 2008

Going Forward

During the Winter Meetings the Yankees took care of most of their business. They got their two pitchers in Sabathia and Burnett and before that they solved their first base issue. They`ve also established that they`ll be keeping Cano and Damaso Marte.

Here's how the roster seems to be shaping up:

C: Jorge Posada
1B: Nick Swisher
2B: Robinson Cano
SS: Derek Jeter
3B: Alex Rodriguez
RF: Xavier Nady
CF: Brett Gardner (?)
LF: Johnny Damon
DH: Hideki Matsui

INF: Cody Ransom
4th OF: Melky Cabrera
Backup Catcher: Jose Molina
4th Bench Guy: ?

SP1: C.C. Sabathia
SP2: A. J. Burnett
SP3: Chien Ming Wang
SP4: Joba Chamberlain
SP5: Andy Pettitte (?)

CL: Mariano Rivera
SU: Brian Bruney
MR: Damaso Marte
MR: Jose Veras
MR: Edwar Ramirez
MR: Mark Melancon
LM: Dan Geise

This payroll is at an estimated 188 million dollars (check out the post on Pete Abraham's blog). This is about at the limit that they indicated the wanted. This is probably going to be your 2009 New York Yankees. The only things that remain to be decided are the Andy Pettitte situation, centerfield and the bench.

We should know about Pettitte soon. In many ways he will determine how they approach the rest of the offseason. I think it is telling that they are waiting to resolve the Mike Cameron situation until they figure out Pettitte over the weekend.

Scenario 1: Pettitte accepts 10 million dollar offer.

This is the optimal situation. It puts them right on the line in terms of going over their personal salary cap, they would be at 188 million and able to add maybe one more solid contract. Hopefully, a new centerfielder or a Delmon Young type backup outfielder. This would let them trade for Mike Cameron if the Brewers picked up a few million dollars and/or accepted Kei Igawa back in a trade.

Scenario 2: Pettitte goes elsewhere and the Yankees sign Lowe or Sheets.

Pettitte leaving would free up enough money for them to sign Ben Sheets or maybe Derek Lowe (Lowe might be pushing it a bit). However, then they can't really afford a new centerfielder or bench player unless they`re making the minimum, and then they wouldn't be worth the prospects it would take. I wouldn't love this situation but it would give them a ridiculous rotation.

Scenario 3: Pettitte goes elsewhere and the Yankees stick with Hughes/Aceves/Kennedy.

This would be the riskiest scenario but also the one with the most potential. This gives them enough money to get a good centerfielder. However, after getting burnt once by throwing the rookies into the fire I doubt this will happen. They`re better off just having Hughes come in when injuries inevitably occur.

I`m really hoping Scenario 1 but I`d be okay with Scenario 2 as well. Either way, this team should be very good for at least 2009.

Friday, December 12, 2008

Non-Tender Bench Options

As teams are making decisions on whether or not to offer contracts to some of their players, the list of non-tenders (courtesy of MLBTR) keeps growing. While most of those players are crap, one potentially useful bench option caught my eye: Ty Wigginton. He hits for a solid average, doesn't walk a ton, but it's enough to get by, and has some decent pop. His career OPS+ is 105, and he has posted an OPS+ over 100 each of the last four years. According to UZR, he is a solid outfielder and second baseman, but is below average at third and first. One obstacle to signing him, however, is that he may get an offer to start somewhere. (Also, look who else was non-tendered).

What is A.J. Burnett Worth?

I was planning to do the next of these posts on Ben Sheets who I`m very curious about and may actually be a better option than Derek Lowe. However, the Yankees have signed A.J. Burnett so I thought I should do one on him. I don't like him but I guess I should do a more careful analysis to be fair. I`ve been wrong before.

Burnett, along with Ben Sheets, is seen as an ace with injury problems. Plenty of people are speculating about a possible super Yankees rotation with Burnett and Sabathia signed. However, the question is whether or not What Burnett can do while healthy is worth his long injury problems.

You know the drill by now, here`s his RCA numbers:


2006- 3.86 (57 runs in 134 innings)

2007- 3.13 (57 runs in 164 innings)

2008- 3.60 (89 runs in 222 innings)

I`m a little surprised by those 2007 numbers. For some reason I`ve always tought of him as being slightly overrated as a pitcher besides the injury thing. However, had he pitched the whole year and been a bit more lucky then he owuld have been a real Cy Young candidate. However, again their's the injury issue.

A replacement level pitcher would have put up these numbers:

2006- 5.50 (82 runs in 134 innings)

2007- 5.50 (100 runs in 164 innings)


2008- 5.50 (136 runs 222 innings)

So, now here's his monetary values for the past three years:

2006-25 runs, 2.5 wins, 13.75 million dollars

2007- 43 runs, 4.3 wins, 23.65 million dollars

2008- 47 runs, 4.7 wins, 25.85 million dollars

2007 and 2008 are easily worth his coming contract. However, he`s rarely going to be as good as he was in 2007 and he`s aslo rarely going to eat up as many innings as he did in 2008. He`s also going to have a few injury plagued years like 2006 where his contract just isn't worth it. At best he matches Derek Lowe but he's much less consistent.

The only positives I can take from this is that he could have some really dominating years where he just puts everything together. He also has succeeded in the AL East. 5 years just isn't worth it though and Derek Lowe would have been a much safer bet to deliver season at a similar quality to what we`re hoping for from Burnett.

5 years at about 16 million a year is not worth it for Burnett. Either Lowe or Sheets would have been better picks.

Britton/Christian

Chris Britton and Justin Christian were non-tendered today. In other words, they`re free agents. I`m dissapointed about Britton, I always liked him but neither are really a big deal.

Yankees Sign Burnett

That's a shame. The Yankees signed AJ Burnett to a five-year, $82.5 million contract, which is $16.5 per year. I don't like this signing, but tell us what you think. More on this later.

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Kevin Towers Shoots Self Again In Foot

The Padres have failed to find a match with the Cubs and now that possible trade is dead to. The Braves have no interest in Peavy now either.

They really want to get his contract off the payroll so they`re probably going to have to settle for a lesser package for Peavy. I still don't see the Yankees getting involved. Especially if they give up anything of value in this Cameron trade.

I think he`s going to end up with the Brewers. This Cameron trade would clear them of 10 million to spend and help them afford Peavy. They need somebody to replace Sabathia/Sheets and Peavy is the best available guy for that. The Angels could also get involved if they think Texiera is a lost cause.

Cameron Talks Back On

For a while it looked like this trade was dead but now talks are back on. The issue is still that second player and finances.

Pettitte's Last Chance

Cashman flew in from Vegas this morning to see Andy Pettitte and offer him the final spot in the rotation. If he declines the 10 million dollar offer then the Yanks are going to move on. I`m hoping he accepts and that Cash is willing to bend a little.

Back in for Texiera

The Yankees are back in on Mark Texiera. I`m assuming they would then move Swisher to centerfield. I think Dunn would be a more affordable option. This may just be them staying in to drive up the price for Boston and Anaheim.

Forget about Punto

The Twins have agreed to a 2 year deal worth about 9 million dollars with Nick Punto. I liked Punto but not enough for a multi-year deal.

Frontrunners for Burnett

Burnett's agent will be contacting other teams to give them one last chance to top the Yankees offer for Burnett today says Ken Rosenthal. This probably already happened and we may know the outcome soon.

Yanks close on Cameron

The Yanks are looking to fill the void in centerfield with Mike Cameron and it seems like they`re getting close to a deal centered around Melky Cabrera and Cameron. However, the Brewers want another player (a pitcher) and the Yankees want salary relief.

Believe it or not, Kei Igawa may satisfy the demands of both teams. He would balance off the salary difference and in the NL Central he may be able to find a niche. The Brewers have also supposedly inquired about him. Bill Hall could also be part of this deal as a utility infielder but I`d try to avoid that if I`m the Yankees.

If I`m the Yankees and I can acquire Mike Cameron for a year for a package centered around Melky Cabrera then I`d have to make that trade.

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Rick Ankiel

I just read about a Joel Sherman article discussing a possible Kennedy for Rick Ankiel swap. Sorry but no link.

I`ve got to say no thanks to this one, they`ve given away a lot of their "B Level" prospects lately. For one year of Ankiel I can't really get behind this possible trade. With only one first round pick coming next year the farm is in a bit of trouble. To sell low on Kennedy here would be a mistake. I`d give him up in a package for a guy like DeJesus who could be a fixture on the team for years but Ankiel isn't much better in center than Swisher or Damon. If they can't pull off a trade I`d rather see Adam Dunn signed, pushing either Swisher or Damon to center.

Burnett for 80 mil?

Jon Heyman thinks that the new Yankees offer is 5 years, 80 million. That's 16 million a year for a non ace who will almost never pitch a full season. This is pure idiocy, you think he`ll be able to stay healthy when he`s 36?

Uh Oh....

It looks like the Yankees may have lost their minds and offered A. J. Burnett a 5th year. Cross your fingers that the Braves go up and save the Yankees from themselves. I`m extremely unhappy if this is true and they better have a contingency plan for when he gets hurt.

Lowe Rumors Exaggerated

After intially being really excited to hear that the Yanks may be closing on Derek Lowe, we`ve had a few sources saying that these are not true at all. Although they are going after Lowe and have made an offer.

Bench Help

Cash is looking for somebody to replace Wilson Betemit and Nick Punto may be the guy. For a utility infielder he has a solid bat and he`s a gret defender. However, with all the Yankees money I`d be dissapointed if Punto spent significant time starting which a utility infielder is bound to do.

Derek Lowe Close?

Cashman isn't waiting to get started on the next big move. The Yanks are in serious negotiations for a four year deal with Derek Lowe. As I`ve stated many times before, I think Lowe should be the second big FA that the Yankees sign.

CC's Deal Has an Opt-out Clause

The contract that CC Sabathia is going to sign with the Yankees is for seven years, as you all know. However, CC has the option of opting out of his contract after three years. This obviously favors CC, but first of all, I think it is unlikely that he opts out, because I don't see him getting $23 million over the next four years. Secondly, in the last four years of this deal, CC will likely be beginning to decline, though he will still obviously be a very good pitcher, so losing four years of him may not sound as bad as it seems.

C.C. Will Sign With Yankees

Alright here is my second post from my iPhone.

According to numerous sources CC will sign with the Yankees. The deal is said to be 7 years and 160 million. I will post more info as it comes.

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Sabathia To Angels

Is not happening.

Jon Heyman talked to Angels owner, Arte Moreno, about Sabathia. It doesn't sound like they`re in it at all. He basically says Texiera is thier main target.

What Is Derek Lowe Worth?

I`ve said before that I think Derek Lowe is the 2nd best pitcher available. He`s looking for a 5 year deal though (not happening though) for about 18 million dollars a year (possible but he`ll probably get less). Just as an estimate, eyeballing his stats I would say he`s worth 3-4 years at about 14-15 million dollars a year. I`ve been meaning to do a more careful analysis though.

Their is a perception of Lowe as being a middle of the rotation starter who can eat a lot of innings. Most see him as Wang lite. However, in truth he`s been better than Wang over the past three years. Unlike Wang, he can strike guys out to go with that great GB ability. In my opinion, he is every bit the ace that Sheets or Burnett can be when healthy.

Here`s Lowe's RCA's and the runs and innings he should have had based on his K, BB, and batted ball numbers:

2006- 3.50 (81 runs in 209 innings)

2007- 3.26 (69 runs in 190 innings)

2008- 3.34 (74 runs in 199 innings)

These numbers show that Lowe's reputation as an innings eater is well earned. However, during those innings he has pitched like an ace. As compared to the replacement level pitcher:

2006- 5.50 (128 runs in 209 innings)

2007- 5.50 (116 runs in 190 innings)

2008- 5.50 (122 runs in 199 innings)

All of this adds up to make Lowe's monetary value:

2006- 47 runs, 4.7 wins, 25.85 million dollars

2007- 47 runs, 4.7 wins, 25.85 million dollars

2008- 48 runs, 4.8 wins, 26.4 million dollars

All in all those are 3 very similar and very valuable seasons. They`re not quite on the same level as Sabathia but they are very good. The only problem with Lowe is that you can really only expect one, maybe two, more years like that out of him because of his age. After that he should start dropping off. He`s looking for a 5 year deal and teams are looking to give him a 3 year deal. I`d guess that he`ll end up with a 4 year deal with an option for a 5th.

So, figure on one more season like 2006-2008 (worth about 26 million), then a year where he`s declining but still near that level (worth about 20-22 million), and then 2 years where he`s an innings eater but not much more than that, sort of like Pettitte now (worth 16-18 million and 12 million each). That adds up to an estimated total of 70-74 million dollars over 4 years for an average of 17.5-18.5 million dollars per year. This looks to be about what he`ll end up getting, maybe a little less. Considering that salaries are always going up as well, its probably a pretty good deal unless he gets injured, which he has no history of.

Right now I like the idea of a rotation of Sabathia-Lowe-Wang- Pettitte- Joba. With Hughes, Aceves, Kennedy, and Sergio Mitre waiting to fill in for injury. That has the potential for a rotation with four aces and could go head-to-head with anybody else in baseball.

Cash to meet with Sabathia

Again....

Very interesting, Cashman missed a media session to get to another meeting with C. C. Sabathia says Pete Abraham. He also says that Sabathia is essentially Plan B for the Angels and Giants which is kind of old news but its nice to hear it reinforced.

Seeing as their last meetin consisted mainly of them discussing what life in New York is like this may be the meeeting where we find out whether he`ll be a Yankee or not.

Derek Lowe

Turns out their are a few Derek Lowe rumors going around after all.

Jon Heyman says that the Yanks and Boras are discussing a 4 year deal for about 65 million dollars. Lowe wants 5 years for 80 million. Somewhere in the middle here would be pretty fair and I`d be fine with it.

The Phillies and Yanks are the biggest competitors for him. Seeing as the Phillies hate giving away money, I like this. In fact, they`re denying that their is even a 3 year deal on the table. I doubt that measn they`re offering 4 years.

Pitching Rumors

I missed alot of different rumors today, mainly pitching ones so I`m going to adr ess each one in bullet form.

  • Joe Girarddi met with Ben Sheets, the Yanks may now be planning to offer him 26-30 million dollars over 2 years. I wouldn't mind that at first glance.
  • No movement on Sabathia's part. He has not declined the Yanks offer as was originally rumored. The Brewers are not raising their offer but have not ruled it out either. We`ve also heard some whispers that the Giants are getting serious.
  • This one scares me. The Yanks may be considering raising their offer to 5 years for Burnett

Monday, December 8, 2008

Sabathia meets with Yanks Again

Sabathia met with the Yanks again today. Judging by what I`ve heard lately, I`m feeling optimistic about our chances with him. I think he may sign a deal by the end of the meetings, just a hunch though.

Cash agrees on bench...

Sort of at least. Now we`re hearing that the Yanks have interest in Bill Hall of the Brewers and Nick Punto. Punto is okay but I think the Yankees should be able to do better than him, they may be even better off with Cody Ransom. Bill Hall is even worse and has a bad contract to. However, their may be more to it than that. The Brewers may be looking to unold his bad contract and this could be part of a deal which would bring Mike Cameron to the Yanks for little in the way of prospects. I guess I could get behind something like that.

Joe Gordon

Joe Gordon has been elected to the Hall of Fame, probably the best second baseman in Yankees history. Its about time this guy got in.

That came out of left-field, didn't it?

Burnett- Braves Talks

Peter Gammons, who is usually reliable when not writing/talking about the Red Sox, says that talks between the Braves and A.J. Burnett are going well. Cross your fingers....

Brewers/Sabathia

It seems like the Brewers are doing everything they can to try to entice Sabathia to stay with them. They may be willing to add a sixth year and an opt out clause after 3 years. They also may be willing to go up to 120 million dollars. If this is true then I think Sabathia would seriously consider going to the Brewers. The opt out clause and NL may be worth 20 million for him.

EDIT: Doug Melvin, the Brewers GM, dismisses the reports about the raised offer. However, they`re still in it.

Sabathia wants to be a Dodger?

Supposedly, Sabathia told Ned Colletti that he wants to be a Dodger. I`m a little suspicious of this story. This would seem to be a really weird thing to say, it puts him and his agent in a really bad position to negotiate. I`m sure he would love to go the Dodgers who are both on the west coast and NL but I`m doubting this.

That said, the Dodgers would be dangerous if they got involved in this. With them getting frustrated with Manny, they have to start looking at other options.

Bench Options

The Twins traded for one of the top hitting prospects in all of baseball last year in Delmon Young. Now, after one year they`re shopping him and their manager doesn't see him as one of their starting outfielders if he stays with the Twins.

He showed promise last year, just not enough to be a corner outfielder, yet. Two years ago he was considered the number one prospect in all of baseball. He`s still only 23, when most players are only starting to reach the majors.

Put into perspective, his numbers weren't that bad either. His EQA in 2007 was .259 and last year it was .268. His plate disciplince is his biggest problem but many players his age have the same problem. Again though, that has improved since he first came up in 2006. He`s still one of the best raw talents in all of baseball.

This is a great opportunity to buy low and benefit from the Twins impatience. He very well could be the starting corner outfielder of the future. In a year they`re going to have to rebuild their outfield. I would love to see them bring in Delmon Young as a backup for 2009 when Matsui, Damon, or Nady inevitably get hurt. As a plus he used to play centerfield but I`m not sure if he can still handle the position.

Peavy to Ramain a Padre?

Joel Sherman has learned that if Jake Peavy is not dealt during the winter meetings, then Peavy will stay with the Padres. This comes with the opinion of Jayson Stark that their is little to no chance that he will be dealt at the meetings.

Cano not going anywhere

Coontrary to early reports, the Dodgers have not talked about trading for Cano since last July. He`s not going anywhere, the Yanks aren't going to sell low on him.

Sunday, December 7, 2008

Where will Peavy Go?

The potential Peavy to the Cubs trade is "on life support." It looks like Kevin Towers has done exactly what Bill Ryan did last year with Johan Santana. After alienating the Braves and now possibly the Cubs, the Padres are kind of screwed.

For them to go into the year with Peavy still on the roster would be an awkward situation for them. Since he has a long time left on his contract, its possible but they won't want to give him a chance to lower his trade value.

Call me crazy, but I think we may see the Brewers jump in on this. They`re probably going to lose their two aces and Peavy may be the perfect guy for them with his below market deal. The Angels may also be a good trade partner, especially if they lose out on both Texiera and Sabathia. It still don't see the Yankees getting involved unless they lose out on Sabathia. However, if his price changes, or Lowe proves to be to expensive, then you never know.

Bench Options

With a team filled with as many old players as the Yankees, a good bench is critical and their thin bench last year may have been the difference between them missing the playoffs and making them. Clearly, this year they need to do a better job of building their bench. I`ll make a few posts on their bench this offseason and different guys who would be better than their current options.

Would Ryan Langerhans be a good fit as a 4th outfielder for the Yankees?

He stands to earn next to nothing this year in free agency. However, he's a very good fielder in center and not a terrible hitter. His EQA's over the past 3 years are .256, *245, and .282. 2006 was a pretty solid year for a centerfielder or especially a 4th outfielder and 2008 would make him a starter on any team. However, 2007 was awful by any measure. His LD% sunk down to 12.6% and his K% rose all the way to 38.6%. It seems like all of his LD's were replaced by strikeouts that year. Maybe all the trades bothered him. I don't really know what it was that happened that year but its such an outlier I`m just going to write it off as a fluke.

Langerhans doesn't have much power but he can hopefully give you a high OBP and a good glove at the end of the lineup. They know that they`ll have injuries in their aging outfield. If Gardner is the starter than Langerhans may be a good guy for that. He also has the advantage that if Gardner falters he can play centerfield.

*In 2007 he spent time with 3 different teams and BP doesn't include season totals. Just what he did individually with each team so I took the easy way out and took the team he spent the the most time with.

Friday, December 5, 2008

How much is Sabathia really worth?

Now you guys better read this whole thing because I`ve been working on this post since before my computer broke.

The Yankees just made the biggest offer for a pitcher in history and now may have to go even higher with the Angels now in the mix. Their's even talk of a 160 million dollar deal. Big deals for pitchers have largely been disasters so far. Is this guy worth it?

Back on my old blog I made a post about a pitching stat I invented. If you want to know how its calculated then you can check it out here. Be prepared to be bored and confused by the end of it unless you`re into that stuff. The point is I`m going use that stat and some of the other things I kind of made up to figure out how much C.C. is worth. Also, keep in mind I`m making this up as I go along so the answer at the end will be just as much of a surprise to me as it is to you.

First of all, lets establish that over the past three years Sabathia has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.Whether you`re a scout, live in your mother's basement or just an average fan this guy is great. He`s been the definition of ace, he has great stuff, great control, eats innings, and doesn't give up runs. His performance isn't a result of luck (like Barry Zito's was) either. His RCA last year (3.22, with 4.50 being average) showed he was very lucky but still one of the best in baseball.


The best way to get a clear monetary value for a pitcher is to take the amount of innings he pitched and the amount of runs he gave up in that time to what a replacement level pitcher would do in that same time. Instead of using the actual IP and runs totals I`m going to use what they should have done based on their SO/BB/Batted Ball totals. These are components of RCA. Every 10 runs is worth about 1 win and every win is worth about 5.5 million dollars. People much smarter than me have figured this out and if you`re interested in how they came to this I suggest google.

Here`s his RCA's for the past 3 years:

2006-3.61 (77 runs in 192 innings)

2007- 3.42 (85 runs in 223 innings

2008- 3.22 (74 runs in 240 innings)

The replacement level pitcher would usually have a RCA of roughly 5.50. Not so coincidentally, that was pretty close to Darell Rasner's ERA last year. Here`s what this hypothetical player would do if he took up Sabathia's innings:

2006- 5.50 (117 runs in 192 innings)

2007- 5.50 (136 runs in 223 innings)

2008- 5.50 (147 runs in 240 innings)

As I said before, 10 runs is worth 1 win generally and each win is worth 5.5 million dollars. Here`s Sabathia's final worth:

2006- 40 runs, 4 wins, 22 million dollars

2007- 51 runs, 5 wins, 27.5 million dollars

2008- 73 runs, 7 wins, 38.5 million dollars

The current Yankees offer in 6 years for 140 million dollars which is a little more than 23 million dollars a year. Over those 6 years we can't expect him to constantly have him repeat his MVP type 2008. However, a 6 year deal would carry him from ages 29 through 34. For him to average out at about his 2006 season is probably pretty reasonable. For now, he`s probably at somewhere between 2007 and 2008. I`m guessing he`ll stay at around that for the first two years, for the next two he`ll be at about 2006 levels and for the last two years he`ll be below even those. I`m going to estimate that 1 of those years will be spent on the DL. For now, 23 million is a bargain for him and is well worth the pain at the end of the deal when he will still probably be a pretty solid pitcher.

Another aspect to consider is the intangible value of him eating innings and saving the bullpen. The bullpen gets run down at the end of the year if the starters can never get past the 5th or 6th innings. I think the current Yankees offer would be a great deal if he would sign it. I`d be willing to go up to 150 million for 6 years as well. However, if he asks for more than that the Yanks will be making a deal out of desperation and the Yanks may need to turn to a Jake Peavy trade to fill out their rotation. Another year would also kill this for me. All in all though, they madea very good offer and if he accepts they can be happy with an ace for the next 6 years.

Cash meets with Boras

Yes, El Diablo himself. Mark Texiera was with him in Washington. They discussed the obvious players, Manny, Lowe, and Oliver Perez. Cash also met with Sabathia.

While we`re at it, Buster Olney thinks that the Cano-Dodgers trade talks will be revived at the Winter Meetings. They would intially ask for Chad Billingsley or Klayton Kershaw. That's not happening so then they would ask for Matt Kemp, which is also not happening.

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Pettitte

The Yankees want Pettitte back for 10 million. This is the first exact number we`ve heard from the Yankees side. Pettitte wants something closer to the 16 million he got last year. I think they`ll end up agreeing on something at about 12 million. I`d be fine with that.

By the way, Joe Torre doesn't see Pettitte leaving the Yankees to come to LA.

Sabathia to Giants

A couple days ago we heard that the Angels aren't after Sabathia as hard as rumored and that Mark Texiera is still their top priority.

Now another west coast team, the Giants, is being rumored to be preparing for a big offer for the ace pitcher. There's no way they willl go up to 140 million but it`ll be more than the Brewers offer of 100 million. I don't see them getting Sabathia. If the Yankees add just a bit more than their current offer than it`ll just be to much money for the Giants to go any farther.

Another interesting aspect is that Cain may become available if the Giants acquire Sabathia.

Rocco Baldelli???!!!!

Ken Rosenthal thinks the Yanks have some interest in Rocco Baldelli. It doesn't make any sense to me. He can't handle centerfield everyday and as a backup he`s probably not as good as Melky or Gardner.

I couldn't really get upset about it but it seems kind of dumb.

EDIT: You know what? He`d probably be a decent 4th outfielder after all. I didn't realize he had treament for his mitochondrial disease.

Dayton Moore

In one of my rare visits to mlb.com I noticed a Q/A with Dayton Moore, the Royals GM. In this article he said his biggest priority was now adding right handed middle relievers. He also emphasized the importance of Mark Teahen to the team.

They`re either going to need to trade somebody or bench Teahen. If Teahen is as important as Moore claims he is, then I doubt he`ll be benched. David DeJesus makes the most sense to be traded to me, he has more value as a centerfielder to another team than to the Royals as a leftfielder. He also said he`s looking for right-handed relievers.

Hmmmm, now what team has a surplus of cheap right handed relievers and needs a centerfielder......

Burnett

Theirs been a ton of articles in the past two days stating that the Braves are preparing to make an offer of 5 years to Burnett for about 15-16 million per year. The Blue Jays and Yankees are supposedly willing to make offers with a vesting option for a 5th year.

I don't see anybody else going to 5 years, other than maybe the Blue Jays. If he goes to the Braves that would be best case scenario for the Yanks. They no longer have to face him and they don't have to sign him to a bad contract. Plus it`ll be fun to watch him terrorize the Mets.

I`m Back

My computer is now working so I`ll be back to making my normal posts now.

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

The Case for Big Donkey

Here is my case for the man, the myth, the legend, Adam "The Big Donkey" Dunn.
Just because of his low average everyone puts him down. It's called plate discipline and OBP. He is strives in statics that dumb people don't know or understand the importance of. He gets on base and walks a ton. Dunn's OBP is higher than some .300 average hitters, which just shows how flawed the average stat is. He is among the major league leaders every season in number of pitches per at-bat, an indication that he generally knows when to swing and when not to. He makes the pitchers work. Dunn has the fifth-lowest career at bats per home run average in Major-League history. His 13.96 ratio (about one home run every 14 times he comes to bat). He has the balance of getting on base and hitting the long ball. With the shorten right field Dunn will go to town. He is not an injury risk, every year he has played in over 150 game every season in his career (expect one).

Nate add onto this with your eternal knowledge.

Monday, December 1, 2008

Adam Dunn Not Offered Arbitration

You know what that means? It means that if we sign him, all we have to give up is money, no draft picks. Make it happen Cashman.

Yankees Offer Arbitration to Nobody

That's right, nobody. Pettitte, Abreu, Mussina, and Pudge all could have been offered arb, but the Yanks chose no to, citing economic reasons. They did not want to risk signing these guys to big contracts. I do not understand this. I think Abreu was unlikely to accept, as he wants a three year deal, and even if he did accept, Bobby Abreu on a one year deal isn't the worst thing in the world. I can understand not offering arbitration to Pudge, because he may have accepted, and Moose is retired, and I still think Pettitte is likely to re-sign with the Yanks. However, I do not understand why Bobby Abreu wasn't offered arbitration. Two draft picks is well worth the risk, especially considering the Yankees will likely give up a lot of draft picks since they would like to make a splash in the free agent market this year.

Damn You Scott Boras!


















14 Free Agents are represented by Scotty B this offseason. Along with that he also devours plump Germans boys in the secluded "Black Forrest" of Deutschland. Those are the two reasons why I hate Scott Boras.